The American Research Group has put out new polls in the 3 most important early states, Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina

Iowa: Romney 28% Huckabee 27%

Two weeks ago it was Mitt 26% Huck 24%. Still, I rather be in Huckabee's position, because when voters are asked if they decisison is final 89% of Huckabee supporters say yes, while only 56% of Romney supporters say the same thing. Another interesting fact, Romney dominates women over Huckabee 43%-19%. Those number basically flip with men, where Huckabee dominates 34%-15%. This is exactly opposite from what I would think, and I am still trying to figure it out.

Also, I would look to the Intrade market, which says right now that Huckabee has a 55% chance of winning the caucus. This is a prediction market where people are placing real money on who the winner will be.

New Hampshire: Romney 36% Huckabee 13%

This looks good for Romney, and it is but nothing for certain. Huckabee is picking up ground here quickly. Huckabee picked up only 7% in last month's NH ARG poll. Romney should win NH, but if Huck can get even 15% in New Hampshire, he has a serious chance of winning the whole thing. Expect Romney to start attack Huck hard in NH.

South Carolina: Rudy: 23% Romney 21% Huckabee 18%

The last ARG poll had Huck at 1% in SC two months ago. In South Carolina, it will be another battle between Mitt and Huck for 1^st. Right now you have 3 guys really close, but Rudy will go down a bit after 2 losses (assuming he loses NH).

In Conclusion, this really is a 3 man race, Rudy, Mitt and Huckabee, who would have thunk it.

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The debate was held in Florida, covered nationally, and the debate after the debate is who won, just like every debate it seems. Well, if go to the candidates websites, they will all claim they won, so don't go there (at least not to determine the winner). They all link to some expert saying something favorable about there guy.

If you want the national's press reaction to who won, the clear winner is Huckabee, I invite you all to go to www.realclearpolitics.com right now and you will see that the vast majority thought that Huckabee won. Some would argue that what the voters who actually saw the debate matters most. Well, they clearly choose Huckabee, as he won a poll of undecided Florida voters over Romney 44%-18%. In a similar poll with Iowa Republicans, similar results: Huck 32% Mitt 16%. (all other behind in both polls) Sadly, I don't think these number mean a whole lot cause not a lot of people actually watch the debates.

They do watch the reactions of the debates though. In Strategy class yesterday, I learned who is the most important person to have on your side in the Media in Iowa is. That man is David Yepsen of the Des Moines Registar. Yepsen's Headline: "Huckabee belongs in the top tier" He aint talking about Iowa either, he is talking nationally. Yepsen had good things to say about Huckabee, McCain and Thompson in terms of performance. He had not so good things for Rudy and Mitt.

Yepsen says: "The Romney-Giuliani tiff with each other over sanctuary cities at the beginning of the evening diminished them both because it didn't look very presidential. Romney especially never seemed to recover his poise and fell back on unresponsive or canned answers the rest of the evening. He's already seen Huckabee catch him in polls of Iowa Republicans. After Wednesday night, don't be surprised if Huckabee starts opening more of a lead in Iowa."

Flipping to my personal opinion, Romney gave some good answers. Still, he made two huge mistakes, first is the one Yepsen describes here. The other came from the Bible question, where it was like you could see every motor in his brain working to make sure he gave the answer that is "correct" for the republican base. The guy is trying to shake the flip-flop pandering label, and that did not help him.

About Huckabee: This was not his best debate, but it was a good one and the most important one. Mark Halpern gave him a B+ (and the highest grade he gave) , and I would agree with that. In these debates, Huckabee either gives a decent answer or a good answer. This was critical for Huckabee because of all the press he has gotten for pulling even with Mitt in Iowa. A lot of voter (and pundits) thought this was key for him cause it was the first time he was on the stage as a 1^st tier candidate and people were impressed (see numbers above). He gave a great answer on the death penalty question, and a great line of the WWJD pressure.

The best thing about this debate, is that is proving me right once again. Yesterday I said that Huckabee could win this whole thing. After the debate last night, some pundits are saying that view as well.

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There is this debate on if Huckabee gave a good answer on the question, would Jesus support the Death Penalty? I give you the question and response below

Cooper: I do have to though press the question, which -- the question was, from the viewer was? What would Jesus do? Would Jesus support the death penalty?

Huckabee: Jesus was too smart to ever run for public office, Anderson. That's what Jesus would do.

First off, this was Cooper trying to get Huckabee to say exactly what Huckabee thought Jesus' stance would be after a brilliant answer that Huckabee gave on his death penalty position. It was not like he joked the question off.

Still, I want to get to the root of this. Huckabee says his faith defines him, so he must believe that Jesus would support it. Still, I like the answer because it 1) shows his sense of humor and 2) is coded very well in a way that evangelicals would like.

I want to focus on the 2^nd reason, as I have not seen anyone pick up on this yet. We need to go back to the time of Jesus. What did the Jews expect the Messiah to do? There was a misconception that Jesus would be this political leader, someone who came in and saved them from the plight of the Romans. They thought, promise land version 2.0. They misunderstood that Jesus kingdom was not to be over a nation or state, but rather savior of the world who came into this world to be sinless, and to die and defeat sin through his resurrection and to allow access to the father through his sacrifice.

It is clear that people did not understand that. Lets look at John 6:14-15. To give some context the people are responding when Jesus fed 5,000 with two fish:

Jhn 6:14 When the people saw the sign that he had done, they said, "This is indeed the Prophet who is to come into the world!"

Jhn 6:15 Perceiving then that they were about to come and take him by force to make him king, Jesus withdrew again to the mountain by himself. (ESV)

See, Jesus was worried that they would want to make him physical king of this world. The people wanted Jesus to have a political position. Jesus had none of it, as Huckabee said "Jesus was too smart to ever run for public office." His mission was not political, it was infinitely greater.

Jesus was a king through, look at John 18:37. This is Pilate with Jesus at the trial of Jesus.

Jhn 18:37 Pilate therefore said unto him, Art thou a king then? Jesus answered, Thou sayest that I am a king. To this end was I born, and for this cause came I into the world, that I should bear witness unto the truth. Every one that is of the truth heareth my voice. (KJV)

See, what Huckabee did was show vertical politics, avoid what was supposed to be a trap, and he did it in such a way that was funny and 100% true, and resonates with people who read the bible. It was a great answer, and I am glad that Huckabee got asked it.

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The Mike Huckabee campaign has been going through phases over the last 6 months. Before Ames, he was a nobody, a guy in the micro percents. After Ames, he was the talk of a vice presidential candidate. Momentum has slowly built, and then at the Value Voters Conference, a fire storm occurred. National media has been writing all about this Huckabee fever and how he has become a contender in Iowa. He is basically in a dead heat with Mitt Romney there.

Still, he is now being considered just a Mitt spoiler. This has been the common wisdom among most of the elites. I was poised to write mostly just that in my Shayko power rankings in a few days and have my own Huckabee supports mad at me. My heart was saying Huckabee has a chance nationally to win this thing, but my head has been trying to hold me back. I have said my support of Huckabee is because I believe, as Huckabee does, that it is not my job to pick the winning horse and ride him to victory, but rather to pick the horse that represents me and do whatever I can to help him be victorious. (I have been with Huck formally since May, when he was in the micro percents)

Well folks, as an aspiring pollster, my head is giving my heart support. I look to the newest poll in Florida. Florida is having their primary January 29th, 1 week before the national primary on February 5th. People are expect Giulani to win there. A month ago Rudy had consistent leads of 20 points there. A new Insider Advantage has it this way: Rudy 26%, Huckabee 17%, McCain 13%, Mitt 12%. 9% not huge at all since Huckabee could very well have to mo heading into Florida. If Huckabee wins Iowa and Florida, all bets are off on who wins this national primary on February 5th.

Lets look at a very possible scenario:

Huckabee wins Iowa with about 30% support, Mitt Drawing 25%, Rudy drawing 15% and Thompson drawing 10%

NH: Mitt wins with 25%, Rudy and McCain get 20%, Huck draws about 15%

Michigan: Rudy takes 25%, Mitt takes 25%, Huck takes 15% Thompson, McCain take 10%

Nevada: Rudy 25%, Mitt 25%, Huck 15%

South Carolina: Mitt 25%, Huck 25%, Thompson 15%, Rudy 15%

Now Florida rolls around with Huck, Mitt and Rudy the 3 battling it out

If Huck wins Florida with say 30%, you go into the National primary with a 2 man race. This will really make for an interesting battle.

The point of this whole post. Well Huck is no longer just a guy who has taken votes in Iowa with Christians, but rather a national candidate who can win the whole thing. He just aint a Romney killer. Huckabee is the real deal.

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Mike Huckabee has done the unthinkable. He is leading in the polls in Iowa! He is now the front runner. From no tier to second tier to first tier now to front of the tier. The talk now should be, can Huckabee gain enough mo to win the national primary. The Iowans have spoke and they have rejected Mitt Romney. The new Ramussen Poll: Huckabee 28%, Romney 25%

 

Expect the CNN Debate tonight to be a fight where everyone is taking sides, attack Mitt Romney (Huckabee, McCain, Giulani) or attack Mike Huckabee (Romney, Thompson). Stinks that I don’t have cable, but I could not watch it anyway, cause if I could I would be at the DC area Huckabee Debate Party, but I will be in class, probably talking about Huckabee’s chances and other Political stuff in Strategy and Message Development.

 

Folks, this is Huckabee’s time to shine. He is accepted as a great candidate in Iowa, now the rest of the county needs to know him, love him and vote for him. If Huckabee does this, it will go down as possibly the biggest surprise ever in the presidential primaries.  

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John McCain is trying to disprove the notion that in this 24/7 media age that you can win the nomination after a failed 1^st attempt. Mark Halpern in his book “The Way to Win” calls this the freak show era. If John McCain does pull the nomination, it will be quite a feat.

 

What McCain has done right: Well, McCain has made himself alive again after being considered a dead candidate by almost all pundits, including myself. He is doing well now playing to his strengths in New Hampshire. He is now in 2^nd place in NH, which is good after people wrote his death note a few months ago.

 

What McCain has done wrong: Well, I wrote a whole article on this before. He overspent what he had, driving himself bankrupt. He bought political operatives just for the sake of his opponents not having them. He has a lease on a huge office that he did not need. Basically, overspending all over the map. Now less address another issue, immigration. He missed the pulse of the Republican Party, and it has hurt him dearly. Another issue, McCain-Feingold, this has hurt him. So, a bad pulse on his money and bad positioning on issues has hurt McCain greatly.

 

How McCain can win: Well, he has to win New Hampshire. He has made a mistake in pulling out of Iowa, so he needs Huckabee to beat Romney in Iowa. If Romney wins Iowa, he wins NH. Just as important, he needs Hillary Clinton to win Iowa. Why you ask? Well in New Hampshire they have an open primary, so anyone can vote for anyone. If HRC wins Iowa, she will be considered the nominee. Thus, Independent types who supported McCain in 2000 can support him again in 2008. A lot of those people right now support Obama, so if he is done, they will want to make their vote matter. He then needs a good showing in SC, enough to knock Rudy out and have his national popularity and mo roll into the February 5^th national primary to win that.

 

Why McCain won’t win: Well, all his eggs are in one basket, and what he has to do is a tall order. He needs 2 things to happen beyond his control just to have a chance. Even so, he is 15 point down from Mitt, and that is a lot to make up, I just can’t see him doing it.

 

Wildcard: I go back to the Democrat primary in Iowa, this matters just as much as the Republican one for McCain.

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Bill Richardson is that other minority for President. In a democratic primary campaign that has featured the two front runners as a women and an African American, people often forget about this well qualified Hispanic running for office. Unfairly, I think a Hispanic winning the white house would be considered less earth shattering than a women or a black winning the White House.

What Richardson Has Done Right: Ads in Iowa. Richardson has run the campaign he has had to in Iowa. He has rightly pointed out that he is the candidate with real experience. He quietly polls in double digits in Iowa and it is because he is a good candidate. The other thing Richardson has done right, he has not attacked Hillary Clinton, setting him up as a great VP for Hillary.

What Richardson has Done Wrong: Well, he has all the good credentials to be president, but he has not converted enough of that potential energy into actual energy. I once read someone say about him “good when no one is looking” That is basically true. Richardson has failed to really set himself apart at debates, and he is in the classic catch-22. People won’t vote for non-viable candidates and a candidate aint viable unless people vote for him. It’s a hard circle to break out of.

How Richardson Could Win: Well, he would have to amaze in Iowa. People in Iowa know him, and 10% like him enough to vote for him. He would have to pull a major Iowa surprise, and then just keep rolling. More likely he stays in long enough to hurt Obama, and the Hillary rewards him with a VP selection. (This would be he way possibly to the White House, kinda like Biden)

Why Richardson Won’t Win: It is that catch-22 I talked about. Hillary has cornered the market on experience. One would think a governor (the usual place presidents come from) who has real experience and would be a change (Latino) would be very attractive. Well, he has been boxed out, and too late for him to capture that.

Wildcard: Remember the way voting is done by Democrats in Iowa. At each caucus, you need 15% to be viable, if Richardson don’t get that 15%, expect most of those votes to go to Obama. So, Richardson’s biggest supporter, HRC

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Fred Thompson is a campaign that really kicked off not because he wanted to run, but rather people thought that he could be the man who filled the Ronald Reagan void on the Republican tickets. Turns out he just don't have a passion for this, and you really need that.

What Thompson Has Done Right: Thompson really used the mystery card well. In a race where most of the candidates threw their hat in the ring in January, Thompson came much later. When the Republican field was disappointing people, it looked like Thompson was in position to take it over. Thompson could afford to do this from his TV star quality and natural credentials of being from the south.

What Thompson has Done Wrong: Well, he played that mystery card too long. What was his asset became a liability. The excitement was turning into frustration. As the other candidates were debating, he was a non candidate. He just could not get his staff into place.  When he did throw his hat into the ring, he did so with the highest expectations possible. People expected him to be the next Ronald Reagan. It is Thompson’s fault that he allowed these expectations to get so high that I don’t even think Reagan himself could have held up those when he first ran.

Not only did he not hold them up, but he has acquired a label of lazy. He is not a great speaker, and what he talks on archaic. I don’t know why he focuses so much on federalism with the American public in the 21^st century. There is no fire, and you just get the feeling he does not really want it.

How Thompson Could Win: Well, he needs to make a rebound in Iowa. He can’t finish any lower than second. Then, he can’t finish any lower than 3^rd in New Hampshire. Then, he needs to win South Carolina by a huge margin. It would help Romney beats Giuliani by a fair margin, but then he wins SC by a wide margin. He needs to have the mo rolling into Feb. 5^th.

Why Thompson Won’t win: Well, It is hard to now see him finishing ahead of Huckabee in Iowa, which hurts a lot. Likewise, he getting 3^rd in NH seems even less likely, with McCain well ahead of him, along with Rudy and Mitt. Thus, it is hard to see how he gets that huge win in South Carolina he needs to have any chance. Simply put, he winning strategy is becoming less and less likely everyday, and I can’t see Thompson walking up and being the Reagan everyone wanted him to be within the next month.

Wildcard: I just said it. If Thompson could ever shed that lazy label and wake up, he could get the conservatives to rally around him.

 

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Today I start a 13 post series of what I am calling the Shayko Power Rankings. These rankings will look at the top 5 candidates positioned to win the Republican and Democrat nominations. After this, I will examine 3 possible 3^rd party candidates and their effects on the election. All of these post will look at these 5 things: What the candidate Has Done right, What the candidate has done wrong, How he (or she) can win the nomination, why he (or she) won’t win, and the wildcard in his or her campaign. Today we start with Joe Biden as the 5^th most likely Democrat to win the nomination.

Joe Biden represents is what many would call the moderate democrat in the race. I do not want to give the impression he is a moderate though. He is a solid democrat, but he stresses what many consider more Republican winning issues, such as national security.

What Biden Has Done Right:  Biden is the Huckabee of the left, he is great at debates, and address issues his party is not as strong on. No one seems to dislike him, except the far left wing of his party. He could make a good VP for a candidate lacking foreign policy experience (Read: Obama)

What Biden Has Done Wrong: Well, you could have a good debate saying who started off their presidential campaign on worse footing, Fred Thompson or Joe Biden. This is what Biden said about Obama back in January: “I mean, you got the first mainstream African-American who is articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy, I mean, that's a storybook, man” The other problem for Biden, he really does not represent anything in the primary scope. The change candidate is Obama, the experience candidate is Hillary. Hillary has been able to kill Biden by giving off the image that she has more experience that him.

How Biden Could Win: Hillary Clinton gets killed. Obama wins the presidency, Biden is the VP, Obama dies and now we have President Biden. Sorry, it was the best I could do with this one for Joe.

Why He Won’t Win: Well, his poll numbers are too low, and he has no money to change that. He would need some Huckabee like grassroots movement in Iowa to have a chance, and I just don’t see it.

Wildcard: If a terrorist attack happens between now and the primaries, Biden gets a jump, too bad HRC does too.

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The Ron People have been pwnd by n00bs. And they arn't happy about it. They are getting ticketed that we are taking over digg.com and have such a say on yourtube.com. As I went through the comments from Mike Huckabee's first TV ad, it was clear to see that there is another voice. They don't like this since the only thing they got going is a good internet following. It now looks as if Huckabee is building a solid internet following. A lot of these guys are types who never were active in these social networking site.

These n00bs (new users) are posting and digging, bringing down Paul's overwhelming popularity. Paul supports are now saying that they think the 230+ bloggers are paid by the Huckabee campaign. This is so far from the truth I need not even respond. If getting paid is donation your money and time, then yea, I am getting paid.

The ironic this is that the people who claim to be supporting the constitution are doing exactly the opposite with their treatment of no Paul presidential candidates.

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