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I believe that Super Tuesday will end this nomination race effectively as Flordia did for the GOP in 2008. Mike Huckabee won a few states after it was basically declared over, but it will be over. Mitt Romney will win Ohio by 4-6 points and be closer than expected in Georgia and Tennessee, in fact he may even win Tennessee. I believe Tennessee will be the last state to matter that will be called, although Alaska may be last simply due to the fact that it is a caucus state with a significant time difference.
Ohio
This is where the major battle has been has waged. The Santorum hopeful (like me) could claim Ohio is a lot like Michigan without the advantages Mitt has in Michigan, that is that he was born there and his father was Governor there. There is also large evangelical support in the southern part of the state and the eastern part of the state is coal country which Santorum has been dealing with for a while being from Pennsylvania.
The problem is the Santorum flubs and he has lost his “big mo” He lead by double digits in the state but that has been leaking by the day. If this election was on Thursday last week I think Santorum wins. Unfortunate for Rick its not and Romney gets an extra 5 days to pound his message by outspending Santorum at least 4 to 1. When this happens, the numbers move toward mitt every day.
Prediction: Romney 37 Santorum 32 Gingrich 15
Tennessee
The Santorum lead has vanished mostly in Tennessee according to a Rasmussen poll released today in the field yesterday. Santorum needs to hope there is something wrong with this Saturday sample as two polls taken two weeks ago had him up about 20 points. I think the Rasmussen poll is right and I would not be shocked if Mitt Romney takes Tennessee. Tennessee is not conservative as their image, Huckabee only won the state by 2.7%.
Prediction: Romney 33 Santorum 32 Gingrich 18
Georgia
Georgia seems to want to show the former speaker some love for his roots there. Gingrich is making a last stand there and I think he will get it but why? Even a win does not give him a plausible way to win the nomination.
Prediction: Gingrich 36 Romney 30 Santorum 23
Virginia
Due to rules that make it too hard to get on the ballot, this is a two person race between Romney and Paul.
Prediction: Romney 75 Paul 25
Vermont
A Northeastern caucus state that Romney will probably win in a similar fashion to Washington State.
Prediction: Romney 44 Santorum 22 Paul 17
Alaska
Are you staying up for the Alaska caucus results? If so, you long past junkie status
Prediction: Romney 38 Paul 30 Santorum 23
Massachusetts
Mitt Romney was Governor here and there will be no drama in this one. Only degenerate gamblers would bet this one laying a lot of points if betting on Mitt.
Prediction: Romney 65 Santorum 17 Paul 9
Oklahoma
This is the biggest lock for Santorum. I don’t even think this lead will leave him.
Prediction: Santorum 37 Romney 25 Gingrich 21
Idaho
Ron Paul did well here in a meaningless primary in 2008. He will do well again.
Prediction: Romney 40 Paul 35 Santorum 12
North Dakota
Another small caucus state, another Mitt Romney win
Prediction: Romney 37 Paul 24 Santorum 21
So there you have it, Mitt Romney wins 8 of 10 and this race is over. Hoping I am wrong on this one. |
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