First off, sorry for not being around the last couple of weeks. I have been back home in Cleveland.
Anyway, I just wanted to comment on Creigh Deeds. After looking at the data pre-election, I thought Deeds had a very good chance of winning, and I was oh so close to declaring that. Still, the lack of polling available to be made me hold back. It was clear that Deeds had the momentum. The conventional wisdom says the Washington Post endorsement was big for Deeds, and I agree with the conventional wisdom in this case. McAuffle could spend money but he really had no Virginia roots. Moran was too far to the left. Deeds is a great choice for the Democrats as he can win.
So, we have a great matchup in McDonnell vs. Deeds. This election is a rematch, when McDonnell defeated Deeds by less than 400 to win the Attorney General race in 2005. McDonnell was a success at Attorney General, so he has leap-froged Bill Bolling in order to run for Governor (remember, Democrats fall in love, Republicans fall in line). This election is being called a national bellwether, and on the face of it makes sense. Virginia was the bellwether state of 2008. It mirrored the national averages better than any other state. Should we take this as a referendum on the Obama agenda? Contrary to popular belief, the answer is no.
While there is an element of truth into a mid-term governor race saying something about the president, that idea is vastly over-extended. People see their Governors differently than the President. In Governors you see people like Republican Jim Dougless in Vermont and Democrat Dave Freudenthal in Wyoming elected. To give an example in 2008, look no further than Indiana which elected Republican Governor Mitch Daniels by 17 points while voting for Barack Obama.
The great thing about this election is that either side can win it. It’s a Jump ball, and the campaign will matter. Obama is a factor, but not nearly as big as you would be lead by the media. The biggest role he will probably play is in Fundraising on both sides. McDonnell will raise money by demonizing him to the base and Deeds will raise money by have him at an event. Other than that, expect this race to be based on Virginia issues. Remember, all politics is local, and expect this race to be exactly that.
