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We continue the look back through this campaign in the eyes of this blog. We pick back on January 1st, while I was in Iowa working for Huckabee.
January 1st, 2008- I went to an Obama campaign rally in Des Moines, Iowa.
Obama has a certain appeal to him. He is counting on 1st time caucus goers to win this thing for him in Iowa, and they usually don't turn out. Still, he needs this rock star status to bring people out for him.
January 3rd- Mike Huckabee wins the Iowa Caucus in a landslide. This was the best night in my short time in politics, here was my analysis on the rest of the Republican nomination process
Oh, by the way, Huckabee had to fight a guy who outspent him 15 to 1. He had to fight a conservative establishment that hates his guts. Huckabee has convictions, and he is sticking to them. He now goes to New Hampshire and he aint going to win there. Still, he has put himself in a position after Iowa where he has a great chance of winning the nomination. I really only see 3 people who can win it on the Republican side now, Huckabee, McCain and Rudy. Romney has a small chance, but he has to win in New Hampshire. Who ever wins in NH will get to face Huckabee in the conservative final in South Carolina. Whoever wins in SC gets to face Rudy in the Feb 5th final.
January 9th- Huge polling mishap happs in New Hampshire the night before. The RCP average had Obama winning by 8 points, yet Hillary wins by 3. Probably the biggest polling error since 1948
A bigger factor is that a lot of people love John McCain and Barack Obama in NH. These people were going to vote for Obama, but when everyone was saying the Democratic race was over, the Republican race was a dogfight between Romney and McCain. These voters cast ballots for McCain instead of Obama, and it helped McCain and Clinton, and hurt Romney and Obama.
January 11th- I predict that Huckabee is taking a risky strategy trying to play in both Michigan and South Carolina. In the end, this is Huckabee’s big mistake that cost him any chance of being President.
Huckabee is trying to take a stealth win in Michigan. If Huckabee could win Michgan, he could very well win South Carolina too and steamroll into the nomination. Still, he lacks organization there and he it approaching that game ever so late. The dangerous thing is that he does it at the expense of losing South Carolina as well. A Huckabee loss in South Carolina would end his campaign. Huckabee had a huge lead in SC, but after NH 2 polls show McCain with small yet significant leads. This is why a McCain win in MI probably pushes him to a win in South Carolina.
January 19th- I am stunned by a Huckabee loss in South Carolina. I lay out how huckabee could win a brokered convention, but that won’t come to be in McCain wins Florida, McCain does and my prediction comes true.
Huckabee can still win in the South. He leads in Georgia currently, for example. This is a big state that he should be able to take. Obviously, Arkansas should be in his column. If Feb. 5th comes out a big mess, Huckabee can take more southern states later. Still, this is going to be hard if McCain wins in Florida. If McCain wins Florida, then he will take all the big Feb 5th states and this thing is over.
January 26th- I shower more love on Obama. I forgot how much I used to like Obama. I still like him and I hope he is a good president, if he wins.
I, of course, think Mike Huckabee is the best candidate for President and someone that can bring this nation up, not down. Still, I also believe that Barack Obama is someone that could do that too. I am a serious conservative, I think that all life must be protected, I think that marriage ought to be between 1 man and 1 women, I believe that in general tax cuts are superior to tax hikes. Barack Obama is against all of those things. Nevertheless, I am sick of phonies and I feel that Obama (and Huckabee) could work across the aisle and get things done that help this country.
February 6th- In a Super Tuesday breakdown, I predict that the split on Super Tuesday should give Obama an opportunity to really get the train rolling. This was before knowing how botched the Clinton campaign post super Tuesday strategy was
Super Tuesday was a split it terms of delegates, but the fact is that he has pulled even with Hillary as of right now. A big win for Obama in Conn. as I see it. The next month favors Obama, and it may be enough time to get the train moving so that he can roll all the way to the nomination.
Feburary 21st- I declare Barack Obama the winner of the Democratic nomination
What has Obama done is frankly amazing. He is not running a political campaign, he is at the front of a movement. People in the campaign feel that them being involved, more that just your typical activists. This is what makes it a movement. He showed patience in his message. All the “experts” in the media were saying that Obama need to get off his message, and take the gloves off against Clinton. He did not, he instead stuck to his positive change tone.
March 4th- Mike Huckabee drops his Presidential Bid
I have been honored to support Mike Huckabee for President. I endorsed him back in May when he was at 1%. I am happy to be included in his "blogroll" on his website. I loved working for him out in Iowa for a week, and I was happy to be able to talk with him on two separate occasions. I also got to talk to his son, and his two top campaign strategist (Chip Saltsman and Ed Rollins). I will never forget being in the front of the room in a room at the Embassy Suits in Des Moines, Iowa celebrating that win. It will always be in my memory the moment I gave Huckabee a "high-5" just after his victory speech that night.
March 7th- I look at the mistakes of the Huckabee campaign, with a focus on South Carolina
The biggest mistake for the Huckabee campaign is clear. South Carolina. Huckbee allowed Fred Thompson to attack him for days and Huckabee territory and take away Huckabee votes. Thompson was up in Spartanville, SC and the like basically attacking Huckabee to smithereens. Huckabee, trying to hedge his bets in Michigan and hoping for a 2nd place showing, was no where to be seen in the Palmetto State. One has to ask why Huckabee decided to go to Michigan instead of going right to South Carolina. The Huckabee campaign made it clear their strategy was Iowa, South Carolina, Florida, Feburary 5th. They veered from that strategy for two reasons, and I will look at why they did that and why it was bad judgment.
March 8th- I endorse John McCain for President John McCain is an American hero. He is the man who is unparalleled in terms of the foreign policy experience needed in order to keep this nation safe. He has been in Washington for almost a quarter of a century. Every "outside Washington" candidate claims that this is a bad thing, but it is for sure a good thing. John McCain is a conservative who can bring this country together in troubling times. For these reasons and more, I, Nic Shayko, endorse John McCain in the general election for President of the United States.
March 29th- A reader of the blog, Darien points out Sarah Palin as a VP pick. I read up on her and am impressed Darien: Nic, Palin is the one. Here is why: #1. Executive experience. #2. No ties to Bush or Washington. #3. Will shore up the social conservatives which McCain HAS TO DO. #4. Will help close the GOP's gender gap. #5. Will Bring energy and a future look to a McCain ticket. #6. McCain has to do something BOLD to shake things up and take away Obamamania and Palin would do that. The two, I think, will have a good chemistry also because they are both maverick reformers who are gutsy and Palin has a son in the military. This choice is scaring the Dems to death. the sheer level of hatred on blog comments from them about her tells me they have already seen what we are just coming around to seeing. Palin would not only help us win but also change the view of the GOP by many as a party of the older males.
June 8th- 1 day after Hillary drops out, I make the case that Obama should be able to bring the Democratic base together rather quickly. Obama does.
Democrats are a very diverse group. The have black people, gay people, Jews, feminist, environmentalist, labor union people, teachers, atheist, young people and more. While this group looks very diverse, they all think exactly the same. They are all big liberals. Except for rare cases, Democrats all think exactly the same (do note Howard Dean is getting smart and Running conservatives as Democrats in the south).
June 13th- Tim Russert Dies. It is a very sad weekend, as he will be missed
Why was Meet the Press the best show on Television? Tim Russert. Everyone knew that he was the best interviewer on Television. If you going to make it on the national political scene, you had to go through Meet the Press. Weekly Russert interviewed the most important people in Washington and he asked the toughest questions. He was the best at getting people off the talking points and speaking the truth.
July 26th- 100 days from election day, I predict Barack Obama the winner by an EV margin of 286-252
August 3rd- I comment on this election being a referendum on Obama, I get wrong the Bush part.
If Obama shows that he is able to lead, he will be the President of the United States. If McCain is successful in showing that he is not able to lead, then he will be President. There is nothing that McCain can do to outshine Obama. Obama will be the focus of this election. This is why you see the Obama campaign using the “Bush 3rd term” lines less. They know that this election will not be based on convincing people that McCain is like Bush. It will be based on the idea if Obama is ready to lead.
August 24th- Obama picks Biden for VP. I declare it a successful pick
As a loyal GOP team player, I am supposed to bash Joe Biden as a horrible pick for VP. I am supposed to say that it was a pick made out of weakness, not out of strength. That Joe Biden himself said that Obama was not ready to lead. Well, I am not going to say that. Joe Biden was a solid pick that was made for two reasons. First, and probably foremost, he was picked because he will make a good VP should Obama win. Second, he balances the ticket with his experience and foreign policy credentials. Does this say that Obama lacks experience and foreign policy credentials? Yes it does, but a Good VP helps cover your weakness. Look at the good VP picks. They all filled a void in the Candidate. LBJ filled a similar role to Biden. Cheney gave Bush that “gravitas” in 2000. George H.W. was the establishment part of the base that Reagan lacked. All these picks filled something, and Biden is no different.
August 29th- Sarah Palin is picked for VP. I love the pick, to say the least
Lastly, is she read to lead? Yes! Yes! Yes! She is the only person on either ticket with executive experience. I know that is the talking point but sometimes the talking point is correct. She will surround herself with people and make informed decisions. This moment, she doesn’t know about Iran. She will learn about these issues. With a woman raising a family and reforming the most corrupt state in the union, I don’t see how she is not fit for the job. The pick is fresh, and this pick is amazing.
September 12th- I make my closest Prediction of the election after the wild Palin success. Obama 273 McCain 265
September 21st- Fresh off the McCain-Palin rally fire, I believe that Republicans can win
The worse thing about Sarah Palin is that she is not running for President. She is the best thing that has happened to John McCain. Make no mistake friends; this is still an uphill climb for the Republicans. Still, with Palin, victory can be seen now for the Republicans. Palin and McCain bear no resemblance to George W. Bush and the old GOP. We really have two non-incumbents running for office. As much as Obama says that McCain is Bush, it just simply is not true. We now have their ears, we just have to make the sale.
September 26th- The bailout bill is being looked at, I claim it must past of the drop in the DIJA will kill Republicans
If this bill fails, expect a 2,000 point drop in the Down Jones Industrial Average. This will happen before the election and Obama will win. It is a good idea if this was a bluff, but frankly, it aint. Sadly, if McCain puts all his chips on being the Populist hero, he will crap out, and worse, the country will be a bad place to be for a while.
September 29th- I am in the chorus of people who say that Palin is being overcoached
No one is perfect. Admit your weakness. No one expects Palin to have all the foreign policy answers. She don’t even need all the economic answers. Just let her be herself, she is amazing and the people will love her. Her philosophy is right and her heart is pure. If Sarah Palin acts like Sarah Palin on Thursday night, she wins the debate. If she tries to act like she knows more than she does, she loses. It is that simple.
October 2nd: Prediction- Obama 328 McCain 210
October 8th- McCain is trying every attack in the book. I am critical of that strategy
Normally, it may work, problem is, there is an earthquake going on in American right now. The foundations of this country are shaking. People right now don’t care about Jello. They care about their house not falling down. McCain needs to show that with him, their house won’t fall down. If all three braches of government are controlled by Democrats, the house will fall down. There needs to be some balance. McCain instead is throwing Jello. McCain needs to get serious. I am not talking lack of attack. It needs to be clear that McCain is the one who can fix this problem.
October 9th: Prediction- Obama 353 McCain 185
October 17th: The Nicolas Shayko Momentum Indicator is created. It shows a huge surge in mo when Palin is picked for VP, quickly flipped when the financial crisis occurs. Obama keep building that momentum and ended up taking a huge lead.
October 17th: Prediction- Obama 353 McCain 185
October 23rd: Prediction- Obama 364 McCain 174
Final Prediction: Obama 338 McCain 200
Keep with the blog today and tonight for sure with the live coverage as results pour in. |
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