My Predicted Electoral Map
I have been wanting to do this for a while and fellow blogger and friend Kevin Tracy
beat me to the punch in the circle of things I read. I believe that Barack Obama will win this election. It is possible for McCain to win, but as many have said, he really has to draw an inside straight. I have 13 leaning states which I will be featuring here in the near future individually. I have already featured Virginia
. I am not going to go in depth of a state by state basis because I will do that when I feature the states.
First off, McCain can’t lose in the south, period. He has room to lose one southern state, and most think that that will be Virginia if any. Obama people have been saying the have a chance in a number of Southern States, but this is mostly hot air. The only other southern state that I think Obama can make a serious play in is North Carolina.
The Northeast and Pacific West is a forgone conclusion with the exception of New Hampshire. New Hampshire could loom big if the rust belt breaks a certain way, which I will discuss in a second.
The interior west is very interesting. Obama can really attack typical Republican states like Nevada, Montana and North Dakota and try to steal one. Colorado is huge, but I think the convention will put Obama over the top there. Also, expect an Obama ambush in Missouri.
The key to this election, if close, will be the Rust Belt. Specifically, Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania. If one of the candidates sweeps those 3, they win the election. If McCain can pick off 2 of those 3, it makes it very hard for Obama. There is a possible doomsday scenario in that if you take my map and flip Michigan to McCain, you get a tie, 269-269. People in this part of the country will yet again be seeing a lot of the candidates. The GOP is kicking themselves, why did they choose Minneapolis over Cleveland? Just stupid.
Why is it uphill for McCain? Look at the solid numbers. I have Obama with a Solid 222, while McCain only has 157 solid. So, while possible it is difficult for McCain.