I was slaving of the site www.thegreenpapers.com I have went over all the 21 states and their methods of voting and my prediction with delegate count is as follows:
McCain: AL 24, AK 4, AR 2, CA 72, CO 12, CT 27, DE 18, GA 45, IL 29, MA 14, NJ 52, NY 87, ND 9, MN 20, OK 17, TN 19, AZ 50, MO 58
Romney: AL 5, AK 20, AR 1, CA 98, CO 30, GA 12, IL 26, MA 26, ND 17, MT 25, MN 11, TN 3, UT 36, WV 18
Huckabee: AL 15, AK 1, AR 28, CO 4, GA 12, IL 2, ND 13, MN 8, OK 3, TN 17
The totals are McCain 580, Mitt 328 and Huckabee 103.
I dont want to go all of these numbers, but I want to point out a few of the most interesting ones.
Missouri is the closest winner take all state, with 58 delegates. I put them in the McCain column, but Romney or Huckabee could take this state as well. Watch Missouri, as it is probably the hardest fought prize.
California is winner take all by district. I put this in the Romney column, but it really is a mixed district battle. Its hard to predict these district cause I dont know the district by district breakdown
Illinois has a loophole primary. It has the oddest rules and I think those rules favor Romney because they give more weight to districts more likely to vote Republican in November. How big that edge is, I do know. That is why I have McCain only taking 3 more delegates even though he could win the state by as many as 20 points.
North Dakota is a proportional state unless someone get 2/3rds of the vote. Will Mitt Romney do that?
Georgia is a winner take all by district and by state. I am basically splitting up the districts all 3 ways, but have McCain take the 30 statewide WTA votes.
We shall see if this race is over tonight.